Prediction market rules: deadlines and resolution

1. Turn the headline into a precise question

A prediction market headline is a summary. Its rules define the outcome. “Will a price rise?” leaves several questions open: which asset, which starting value, which final observation and which price source? Two markets with similar headlines can settle differently when those details differ.

Read the outcome definitions before comparing percentages. “Above” and “at or above” treat equality differently. “Announced by a date” and “takes effect by a date” describe different events. Record the actual wording instead of substituting what you think the question ought to mean.

2. Separate the event deadline from the trading deadline

Look for the observation window, the last time orders can be placed and the time at which the result can be finalized. Do not assume these are identical. A market may need to wait for its specified information source after the event window has ended.

For a hypothetical deadline of 12:00 UTC on 1 October, the equivalent time is 20:00 in Manila and Singapore, and 19:00 in Bangkok and Jakarta. Keep the date alongside the time: converting a late UTC deadline can move the local deadline into the next day. These examples illustrate time conversion; they are not WindMarket launch times or market schedules.

3. Find the source and measurement that determine the outcome

Check the named publisher, exchange, data feed or official result page. A live price on another website may not be the measurement used by the contract. Also check whether the rules use a single observation, a closing value or an average over an interval.

Imagine an illustrative question that resolves Yes only if a specified reference value is strictly above 100 at the deadline. A value of exactly 100 would not meet that condition. A brief move to 101 earlier would not establish the final result either. A different contract asking whether the value ever reaches 101 would require different evidence.

4. Read what happens when the result is delayed or disputed

Look for the stated treatment of missing data, postponed events, corrections, ties or cancellation. Do not infer that every platform uses the same fallback. If a rule does not answer your question, use the official support channel and keep the market link with your question.

Resolution procedures differ. Polymarket’s help page, linked below, describes its own resolution process and predefined rules. That is a reference example, not evidence that a particular WindMarket market uses the same oracle, timing or dispute procedure. The relevant market page and platform terms are the source for those details.

5. Distinguish selling a position from final settlement

A sale transfers shares through an available trading mechanism; settlement applies the final outcome under the contract. Where selling is supported and trading remains open, an executable buyer and sufficient liquidity are still needed. A displayed probability does not guarantee you can sell a chosen quantity at that price.

Read the order preview and fees separately from the event rules. Selling before resolution can produce a gain or a loss, and an unfilled sell order is not a completed exit. Our homepage animation illustrates a sequence of actions; it does not demonstrate available liquidity or actual customer results.

A short checklist to keep beside a market

• Question: what exact condition makes each outcome correct?
• Time: which deadline, date, time zone and observation window apply?
• Source: which publication or feed supplies the decisive value?
• Exceptions: what do the rules say about equality, missing data or postponement?
• Trading: when does trading end, and what price and quantity are actually available?
• Resolution: how is the result finalized, and where can I ask a question?

Use the same checklist when comparing two markets. A similar topic is not enough: compare their definitions and evidence first, then consider what their prices are saying.